BioVal™ analysis of Saniona’s SAN2668 gives an rNPV of SEK 2.37 billion
BioStock today initiates analyst coverage of Saniona and publishes a new analysis through the rNPV platform BioVal™. The analysis values the drug candidate SAN2668 in developmental and epileptic encephalopathies (DEE), a group of severe epilepsies that usually begin in childhood. The analysis arrives at a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of SEK 2.37 billion in the base case.
BioVal™ is BioStock’s proprietary rNPV model for drug assets. It provides a fundamental, source-referenced valuation of individual assets, from preclinical stage to launch. The model is based on estimates of the probability of reaching the market (probability of success, PoS) and established industry data. BioVal™ is also interactive, allowing users to adjust assumptions themselves and build their own analysis.
The published analysis has been commissioned by Saniona and values one drug project, not the company as a whole or its overall portfolio. The company’s other programmes – SAN2465, SAN2219 and the partnered programmes – are not included. The valuation reflects the markets in the USA, the EU27 and the UK.
SAN2668 is valued as a stand-alone project. The company’s overhead costs, financing and cash are neither charged against the valuation nor added to it. The figure should therefore not be read as a company value and should not be compared with Saniona’s market capitalisation. Nor is the analysis a price target or a recommendation.
The probability of obtaining marketing approval (PoS) is estimated at 12.0 per cent, starting from phase I. On 13 November, the EMA’s Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products (COMP) recommended EU orphan designation for SAN2668 in CHD2-related neurodevelopmental disorder. The recommendation is not included in the PoS, and the analysis will be updated once the European Commission has made its decision.
In the base case, SAN2668 reaches the market in 2034 in the USA and in 2035 in the EU27 and the UK, with peak sales of SEK 19.37 billion in 2042, before risk adjustment. The model is based on 295,715 patients with poorly controlled DEE across the three regions, of whom 12.75 per cent are treated at peak. In a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 runs, the value ranges from SEK 1.21 billion to SEK 3.97 billion at the 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
The BioVal™ analysis is published both as a PDF report and in the BioVal™ tool. Create a free account to see all assumptions, calculation formulas and graphical presentations of the different parts of the analysis. In BioVal™ you can adjust a range of assumptions in the control panel yourself and follow how they affect the valuation in real time, for your own assessment of the case.
The PDF report and the BioVal™ tool are available at https://biostock.se/2026/11/bioval-analysis-sanionas-san2668-valued-at-sek-2-4b/