BioVal™ analysis of SynAct’s resomelagon – three indications with a combined value of SEK 2.9B
BioStock today publishes a new analysis through the rNPV platform BioVal™. The analysis values SynAct Pharma’s drug candidate resomelagon in three separate indications: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respiratory viral infections (RVI) and dengue. It arrives at a risk-adjusted asset value (rNPV) of SEK 2.72B in RA, SEK 358M in RVI and SEK 80M in dengue.
BioVal™ is BioStock’s in-house rNPV model for drug assets. It provides a fundamental, source-backed valuation of individual assets, from preclinical stage through to launch. The model draws on estimates of the probability of reaching the market (Probability of Success, PoS) and established industry data.
The analysis has been commissioned by SynAct Pharma and updated with figures from the company’s Q3 interim report. It values three drug projects, not the company as a whole or its full portfolio. The company’s other programmes – polymyalgia rheumatica, idiopathic membranous nephropathy and TXP-11 – are not included. The valuations for RA and RVI reflect the USA, EU27 and UK markets. The dengue valuation covers Brazil, where the company has a commercial partnership agreement.
The three individual asset valuations sum to SEK 3.16B. After deducting company overhead costs and the cost of raising the capital deemed necessary to bring the projects to market, and adding net cash, the combined value is SEK 2.90B. This figure should not be read as a company value and should not be compared with SynAct’s market cap. Nor is the analysis a price target or recommendation.
Most of the value sits in the RA project, which accounts for 86 per cent of the summed asset rNPV. The project is currently being prepared for phase III, and the probability of reaching market approval (PoS) is assessed at 32.3 per cent. SynAct has submitted a phase III design to the FDA and expects feedback at the end of 2026 or in early 2027.
The RVI project is valued at SEK 358M, with a PoS of 20.2 per cent. The phase II RESPIRE study includes 96 hospitalised patients with respiratory insufficiency and is expected to read out in 2027.
The dengue project is valued at SEK 80M, with a PoS of 19.8 per cent. The project was licensed to Hipolabor Farmacêutica for Brazil in October, and the companies share profit and development costs equally. Results from part 1 of the phase IIa RESOVIR-2 study are expected in 2026, with topline results from the full study in Q2 2027.
The BioVal™ analysis is published both as a PDF report and in the BioVal™ tool. Create a free account to see all assumptions, calculation formulas and graphic presentations of each part of the analysis. In BioVal™, you can also adjust a range of assumptions in the control panel and follow in real time how they feed through to the valuation, to make your own assessment of the case.
Access the PDF report and BioVal™ tool at https://biostock.se/en/2026/11/synact-pharma-resomelagon-analysis/