Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: Gold grinds higher amid nervous market
Prenumeration
Gold is our case this week. After hitting record highs until the 20th of February, the precious metal has suffered a setback. Gold is perceived as a safe-haven asset in an environment where investor and consumer confidence has fallen recently, most likely mainly due to various policy changes and proposals coming out of the White House in Washington D.C. However, from a technical point of view, US equity markets are already starting to look oversold.
Gold faces short-term investment risks as the 20-day moving average on the daily chart has reversed direction. Longer term, gold prices are expected to remain high through 2025. This is due to ongoing concerns about the US budget deficit, which could lead investors to increase their gold allocations, and central banks (e.g. China) potentially further diversifying their USD reserves amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
US equity markets have started 2025 weak, particularly the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq. In addition, President Trump's actions on everything from tariffs to peace plans are contributing to a deterioration in business and household sentiment.
Our technical analysis indicates that both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are currently oversold.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
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