Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: Strong Q1 2024 season and outlook in the US
Prenumeration
Gold initially fell last week on the back of US macroeconomic data, before rallying on the back of the weak employment report. Next week, China's trade balance is likely to have some impact on gold. Longer term, we believe the bull case for gold remains solid. The fundamentals for the stock market look solid after strong Q1 reports from Amazon and Apple, as well as rather weak US non-farm payrolls last week.
As the latest Fed meeting was not as hawkish as the market had feared, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell by more than 1% on Wednesday 1st May and the USD weakened against other currencies. As a result, gold prices climbed back above $2,300 an ounce. However, despite last week's weak non-farm payrolls data, gold failed to attract investors and the price fell back slightly. In the longer term, we remain bullish on gold, which could be supported by improving Chinese macro data.
The US Q1 earnings season has continued to be strong, with both Amazon and Apple beating expectations last week. Analysts are now forecasting EPS growth of 9.6% for S&P500 companies in Q2 and 8.4% in Q3.
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