Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: The VIX is quiet ahead of a busy autumn

2026-08-19 09:53:00

This week's case focuses on VIX and several upcoming autumn events that could trigger volatility in the global stock market. These include the US midterm elections, as well as inflation resulting from renewed hostilities between the US and Iran and its proxies. There has also been some uncertainty surrounding AI-related stocks. From a technical perspective, US equities have already come under some pressure.

Following a strong US earnings season and moderate inflation figures, implied volatility has decreased. However, several political and macroeconomic events over the next few months could disrupt the current summer lull in the equity markets. These include the US mid-term elections on 3 November, growing concern over the high valuation of a few AI-related companies dominating the current valuation of the S&P 500, and renewed hostilities in the Middle East. This uncertainty is evident in the recent pressure on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.

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About Carlsquare

Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more