Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: US PCE and Euro CPI in focus
Prenumeration
This week's case is a follow-up to orange juice, where the price has surged on expectations of limited supply. The market will focus on the ECB's May CPI figures and the US PCE figures for April, both due on Friday the 31st, which could potentially move interest rates.
Since our last update on frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) in early March, the prices of FCOJ futures prices have trended higher than expected. The lack of favourable weather and clinical progress against citrus greening disease has led to supply expectations drying up. However, as we approach the halfway point of 2024, bullish liquidity may dry up in the second half of the year.
Strong macro data from the US, where the weighted PMI came in at 54.4 versus expectations of 51.2 on Thursday the 23rd, pushed the US ten-year Treasury yield up 6 basis points to 4.48%. On Friday the 31st we will get the Eurozone CPI for May, which is expected to have risen to an annual rate of 2.5% from 2.4% in April. Also, very important on Friday will be the US PCE inflation index for April, which will be compared with the 2.7% annualised PCE inflation rate for March.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
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