Geopolitical turmoil creates declines and volatility
March was a very weak stock market month for large-cap companies, with the broad Stockholm Stock Exchange (OMXSPI-GI) falling by -7.5% and the global index (Dow Jones Global Index) by -7.6%.

The month was characterized by the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, the associated blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the destruction of oil infrastructure across the Middle East. The latter two factors have led to higher oil and energy prices, which risk fueling inflation.

Our approach: analyzing the situation and acting calmly
As always, we believe that investors or funds should not attempt to engage in macro forecasting. The legendary economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said:

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

We fully agree with the above, but add that it is important to assess the effects that macro events may have on our holdings.
Our main observations are that the Iran conflict is already creating uncertainty among both consumers and companies, leading to postponed investment decisions—particularly for larger investments where decisions can easily be delayed.
This means that earnings for companies driven by large investment decisions are likely to weaken during 2026, while companies with subscription-based models will continue as usual.

When markets become volatile due to macroeconomic uncertainty, all companies are often treated similarly, causing share prices to decline across the board. We take advantage of this by adding to positions in companies whose operations are likely to remain stable even in uncertain times.

Read the full monthly report with company comments and more in the attached file.