Production in US operations increased in Q4
Production in Illinois Basin, Maha’s producing asset in the US, increased by 38% sequentially and 130% Y/Y in Q4. As the oil price (WTI) fell 10% Y/Y and 7% Q/Q, operating netback decreased slightly both Q/Q and Y/Y. Although positive, the development in Brava Energia (Brava) – the recently merged 3R–Enauta entity, of which Maha owns 4.76% – will be the main share price driver going forward, together with any development in its interest in Venezuela. We leave our fair value of Maha, which mainly comprises the value of its US assets and the market value of its stake in Brava, unchanged at SEK8–10.

Significant progress by Brava Energia, according to Maha
Towards the end of the year, Brava announced the restart of production at its two largest growth assets, Atlanta and Papa Terra. Atlanta, which produced at reduced capacity for most of H2(24), resumed production with two wells and has scheduled ramp up in H1(25), as four previously producing wells will come back online in the coming six months. Maha expects Brava to reach production levels up towards 100,000 boepd by H2(25) and management expects the positive trend in Brava’s share price in Q4(24) to continue.

Progress achieved in Venezuela position
Its PetroUrdaneta development project was advanced during the period. Technical discussions with PDVSA, the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company, have been concluded and a final business plan will be agreed during Q1(25). The next step is approvals from PDVSA. Contract negotiations will start by the end of Q1(25) and the target is to get a similar framework agreement as Chevron and M&P, allowing the production of oil and gas despite US sanctions on Venezuela. Maha applied for a specific licence with the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) in Q1(24) and remains in communication with Washington DC and the US State Department.

Read the full report, published on 03-03-2025 at 15:00 PM: https://researchdocs.carnegie.se/research/2025/03/03/maha_q4_2024.pdf
This is a commissioned research from Carnegie Investment Bank. Read more here: Carnegie Access - Carnegie