Company Clean motion
Ticker CLEMO
Listing First North Stockholm
Market cap 108 million SEK at time of publication
Share price 1.53 SEK at time of publication
ESGFIRE Target price: 5.4 SEK *
Industry Electric last mile delivery
Website https://cleanmotion.se/
*This target price scenario is ESGFIRE's bull case scenario for 2024
 full target price scenario for 2025 and 2026 is to be found below.

Executive summary:

In the fast paced and evolving landscape of electric vehicles (EVs), Clean Motion from Sweden emerges as a very compelling investment opportunity. With a strategic focus on last-mile delivery solutions, this Swedish company has made significant strides in developing its flagship product, EVIG. EVIG stands out from other EVs with its solar roof for increased range and less dependency on the grid. With a cargo load of 350 Kilo it is fully capable for most delivery missions in cities.  The range from the battery is 150km and together with the solar roof (which adds up to an extra 80km) you can in a given day in sunny climates have a total of  230km in range. ESGFIRE has analyzed the potential of Clean Motion compared to industry giants such as Tesla, Blue Bird,Mullen Automotive as well as the direct competitor Paxter. This analysis explores why Clean Motion stands out as a promising investment in the competitive EV market with a possible upside of over 10 times todays stock price for 2025 given ESGFIRE's bull case scenario. The electric vehicle industry has witnessed rapid growth over the past decade, with major players like Tesla dominating headlines. However, in this growing market, smaller companies such as Clean Motion are quietly carving out niches and demonstrating significant potential for investors. Specializing in electric vehicles for last-mile delivery, Clean Motion's innovative approach and recent milestones positions it as a standout contender in the EV market for last mile deliveries. The flagship product EVIG truly stands out from other alternatives promoting low cost, solar power and drastically less emissions from manufacturing.
 

Company Overview:

Clean Motion is a Swedish company focused on creating sustainable and efficient electric vehicles for urban transportation and last-mile delivery. Clean Motions latest product, EVIG, is a three-wheeled electric vehicle that integrates thin solar panels as its roof, enhancing its range in sunny environments. This feature is particularly advantageous for markets with high solar exposure, providing a unique selling proposition compared to traditional EVs. The company has been around for quite some time as they first tried to break into the market of EV transportation and smaller delivery vehicles with their first vehicle called Zbee. Due to Covid-19 Zbee did not take off as planned however Zbee is currently experiencing a renewed commercial interest in the Indian market.  

Key Milestones recently achieved by Clean Motion:

1. Type Approval: Clean Motion have finally passed all tests necessary for the European type approval at IDIADA. This enables the company to commence production and announce delivery dates for European customers. This milestone is pivotal, marking the transition from development to commercialization. The company aims to give current clients updates shortly on delivery dates. With the most critical test passed and the type approval being imminent ESGFIRE believes orders will already now begin to deliver from Clean Motions production facility. Demand seems to be big for EVIG as Clean Motion have communicated that they will initially prioritize customers which have a potential future order volume exceeding 100 vehicles as well as distributors in southern Europe.
2. New Production Facility: The company has inaugurated a new production facility, significantly boosting current manufacturing capacity to 3000 vehicles annually. This expansion is expected to accelerate production and meet growing demand.
3. Strategic Partnerships: Clean Motion have secured a new licensing agreement in India, attracting nearly 7 million SEK in investment. Clean Motion holds a 42% stake in the Indian subsidiary and expects to earn approximately 2 million USD in licensing fees from 2026 to 2030.
4. Positive Financials: For the first time, Clean Motion reported a positive operating result before depreciation in Q4 2023. This financial milestone underscores the company's progress towards profitability.

Market Potential:

The global market for last-mile delivery vehicles was valued at approximately 132 billion USD in 2022. With urbanization and e-commerce driving demand, the market is poised for substantial growth. Clean Motion's EVIG is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market, offering a sustainable and cost-effective solution for urban logistics. The EVIG has found a price sweet spot in the market which is between 18000 to 28 000 EUR and is very competitive since customers will need to step up in price range to between 40-60 000 EUR to get an electric vehicle with the same cargo capacity as EVIG which in that case will be some sort of van or cargo truck.

Comparative Analysis:

1. Tesla: While Tesla remains a dominant force in the EV market, its primary focus is on passenger vehicles and large-scale energy solutions. In contrast, Clean Motion's niche focus on last-mile delivery addresses a specific and growing need in urban areas.
2. Blue Bird: Known for its electric school buses, Blue Bird operates in a different segment of the EV market. Clean Motion's advantage lies in its innovative design tailored for urban logistics, which differs significantly from Blue Bird's product line.
3. Mullen Automotive: As an emerging player in the EV space, Mullen Automotive focuses on electric SUVs and commercial vehicles. However, Clean Motion's emphasis on solar-integrated, lightweight vehicles for last-mile delivery offers a unique value proposition that sets it apart.
4. Paxter: Paxter is the closest competitor which ESGFIRE has found in Europe. Paxter is made in Norway . Clean Motion's EVIG has a 40 % bigger volume cargo capacity than Paxter (2500 liters vs 1800 liters). The price for Paxter is around 20 000 EUR which is in the same price range as EVIG however Paxter does not appear to offer as many extra added practical features as EVIG. Furthermore it should be noted that Paxter's vehicle have no doors and it appears like a 4 wheeled terrain vehicle as you sit on a saddle while riding the vehicle. Also Paxter only has a reach of 60-80 KM in one charge meanwhile EVIG has a range of 150 KM and even further in sunny climates (up to 230 km range). Clean Motion is also developing a 4 wheeled vehicle which likely will have an even larger cargo capacity than EVIG. (https://cms.cleanmotion.se/uploads/Clean_Motion_PM_20231208_GIANTS_projekt_f69b02da0c.pdf)
 

Stock price fair value range base and bull scenario according to ESGFIRE*:
          Base        Bull
2024: 3,6 SEK - 5,4 SEK
2025: 18 SEK - 27 SEK
2026: 57 SEK - 85 SEK
*Base scenario factors in a 20 X EBIT valuation and Bull Scenario factors in a 30 X EBIT valuation. Full valuation scenario and assumptions are found below.
 

Financial projections according to ESGFIRE:

2024
Sales: 58 MSEK
Number of vehicles: 250
EBIT: 14,5 MSEK
2025
Sales: 290 MSEK
Number of vehicles: 1250
EBIT: 72,5 MSEK
2026
Sales: 928 MSEK
Number of vehicles: 4000
EBIT: 232 MSEK
 

Basis for Financial projections and fair value range:
 

Please note that ESGFIRE's financial projections does not take into account any sales for Clean Motions first vehicle Zbee which the company recently signed a licensing deal for in India. Our projections only consider sales projected in Europe.

In terms of vehicle sales numbers our projections are based on the company's previous communication, signed distributors agreements as well as an overall market projection on the demand for the company's flag ship product EVIG. It is worth taking note that when signing a project deal with the European Union for the Horizon program the project revealed that they anticipate a global demand for 1,5 million vehicles per year already by 2028. (https://cms.cleanmotion.se/uploads/Clean_Motion_PM_20231208_GIANTS_projekt_f69b02da0c.pdf) Applying a 1 % market share of this global need would translate to 15000 vehicles per year.

ESGFIRE's projections originates from an estimated median sales price range for EVIG of 232 000 SEK per vehicle (which is from information we've collected publicly). We are assuming an above industry-standard EBIT margin of 25 % (typically vehicle manufacturers are around 10-15 % ) this is due to Clean Motions historical ability to deliver outstanding results with very small means and little CAPEX requirements as well as the low cost of assembling. Furthermore, seeing as the company managed to show an EBITDA profit of close to 10 % in Q4 of 2023 on just 4,4 million SEK in turnover we are confident that our EBIT margin assumptions should prove to be correct. As of the latest data available EV companies have been trading at EBIT multiples ranging from 15X to 50 X depending on their growth rate, profitability and market positioning.

Based on available data a reasonable EBIT multiple for Clean Motion could be the following:
Base Scenario: 20X reflecting a balance of high growth prospects and inherent risks.
Bull Scenario: 30X reflecting the potential for very high growth and capturing market optimism.
These EBIT multiples are based on the market's confidence in the company's future growth and ability to deliver on its objectives. These EBIT multiple ranges accounts for both the growth potential and the inherent risks of investing in a young company in a competitive sector.
Given the company's current liquidity situation, ESGFIRE has incorporated a projected 10% dilution for an anticipated capital raise into our target price calculations. This capital raise is expected to inject an additional 15 million SEK in equity based on current share prices. We have limited our dilution assumptions to this initial raise, acknowledging the challenges in accurately forecasting future capital expenditure requirements.
 

Risks and Considerations:

While the outlook for Clean Motion remains promising, investors should consider several potential risks. The company may need additional capital to scale production, potentially leading to dilution. The electric vehicle (EV) market is highly competitive, and technological advancements by competitors could impact Clean Motion's market share. However, a loan facility provided by existing shareholders is expected to ease the liquidity slightly. Nonetheless, a minor capital raise may still be necessary in the short term, as reflected in our valuation scenario.

The EV industry has seen numerous small producers with varying degrees of success over recent years. ESGFIRE believes Clean Motion is well-positioned to succeed, having learned from the challenges faced during the launch of their previous vehicle, Zbee, which encountered both product and macroeconomic issues. In developing EVIG, Clean Motion has prioritized customer value and identified a lucrative niche, offering highly adaptable features to meet diverse client and industry needs. This strategic focus enhances their competitive edge and potential for sustained growth.

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Conclusion:

Clean Motion represents a highly promising investment in the growing electric vehicle market. With its focus on sustainable last-mile delivery solutions, recent strategic milestones, and robust market potential, the company is well-positioned to deliver significant returns. The company's flagship product EVIG has found a niche and sweet spot price level for last mile deliveries and EGSFIRE believes that the customer value orientation of Clean Motion and EVIG's many different add on features (for example for hardware installers) could drive growth exponentially.
For investors looking to invest in a rising star in the EV industry that emphasizes sustainability and innovation, Clean Motion offers a great opportunity. If the company meets our bull case projections, investors could possibly see returns of more than 10 times the current stock price by 2025 and beyond. Clean Motion is currently the largest position of the ESGFIRE portfolio, underscoring our confidence in its potential.

About ESGFIRE

ESGFIRE is an investment company and research firm that focuses on ESG companies with either an environmentally friendly service or product. ESGFIRE has a performance record of over 1000 % returns since 2018.

Contact details
Website: www.esgfire.com
Group CEO: Filip Erhardt
Email: Filip@esgfire.com
Telephone: +46701609605

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This post is based upon reliable sources, namely regulated press releases from the company, as referred to above. Nevertheless, this post may contain interpretations, estimates, or opinions of the authors, or other non-factual information. If that is the case, this is continuously stated above. Furthermore, any projections, forecasts, or similar are explicitly stated as such.

The author holds shares and/or other securities of this company and this may impact the content of this analysis. Because of the above, ESGFIRE urges the visitors to always analyze all the posts critically in an objective manner, e.g., concerning the reliability of the relevant source and of what constitutes the authors' personal interpretations. The visitor is hereby reminded that the post does, as set forth in the Post, contain interpretations, estimates, or opinions of the authors. This post was written by Filip Erhardt, at ESGFIRE, published on 31[st] of May 2024.

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