Nordea Economic Outlook: Resilience in motion
The global economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical conflict, elevated energy prices and trade tensions. Meanwhile, tighter monetary policy from both the ECB and the Fed continues to weigh on financial markets, driving long-term yields in many countries to their highest levels in 15 years. The US dollar is depreciating, while the Nordic economies continue to outperform, according to Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist.
We have broadly maintained our global growth forecast in line with our May projection: expecting growth of approximately 3% in both 2026 and 2027. For 2028, covered for the first time in the current forecast, we project global growth of 3.2%. We continue to assess the balance of risks as tilted to the downside.
Despite higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, the Danish economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Growth is broadening beyond pharmaceuticals, and we expect this trend to continue. However, public finances are facing growing pressure, and the current account surplus is gradually narrowing.
The Finnish economy has grown broadly in the first half of the year, with private consumption, investment and exports all contributing. We expect growth to continue despite higher fuel prices and interest rates resulting from the Middle East conflict. The recovery is set to pass through to the labour and housing markets with a lag.
In Norway, underlying inflation is likely to pick up again and remain around 3% until year-end, indicating that Norges Bank has yet to reach its inflation target. We expect one more rate hike this autumn, and no rate cuts until 2028. Slightly higher rates and declining petroleum investment will weigh on growth and lift unemployment modestly.
The Swedish economy has normalised, with growth driven by stronger exports and firmer domestic demand. Resource utilisation is increasing, unemployment is declining and inflation could rise to around 2% next year. The Riksbank is expected to raise its policy rate, while the SEK gradually strengthens over the forecast period.
| Real GDP, % y/y, September 2026 |
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| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| World | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| United States | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| Euro Area | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| China | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Denmark | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | |
| Finland | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Norway (mainland) | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |
| Sweden | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | |
| 1) Weighted average of 186 countries. The weights are calculated from PPP-adjusted GDP-levels. Source: IMF April 2026, Bloomberg and Nordea | |||||
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For further information:
Helge J. Pedersen, Group Chief Economist, Mob: +45 22697912
E-mail: helge.pedersen@nordea.com
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