The unusually high uncertainty surrounding economic policy conditions (read: tariffs) affects growth forecasts, corporate earnings and market confidence. In this situation, we choose to keep our portfolio close to normal, with a neutral equity weight.

"In today's uncertain times, we believe that having a portfolio without major deviations from a normal situation is a responsible way to manage our customers' assets. But that doesn't mean we are idle. We are constantly considering changes to adjust the balance of the portfolio in response to shifts in the market, and we are actively looking for the next possible major change in order to capture market potential as the picture clears," says Fredrik Öberg, Chief Investment Officer at SEB's Private Wealth Management & Family Office Division.
      
Our market view 
Optimism has been replaced by uncertainty and sharp volatility, with a clear turning point in early April when the United States unveiled a new, confrontational tariff policy. Confidence in the American economy and policies has been shaken, leading to capital shifts away from the US to other countries, a falling dollar and weaker US stock markets. Meanwhile, the Swedish krona has appreciated, which has negatively impacted returns on global assets measured in SEK. Tariffs and geopolitics are slowing global economic growth, especially in the US and China, while interest rate cuts and stimulus measures, especially in Europe, are having the opposite effect. Earnings estimates are being pushed lower, and investors' risk appetite has declined. Despite some stabilisation, an uncertain global picture remains. We continue to see elevated risks in the short-term market situation.

Our portfolio
Because of the current uncertainty, we are keeping the portfolio close to normal - with an even allocation between equities, fixed income and liquid alternative investments. In equities, we have a balance between Swedish and global stocks, with US growth companies offsetting Swedish value stocks. In the fixed income sub-portfolio, we have a slightly longer duration and an underweight in high yield bonds in favour of more stable bonds. Our hedge fund exposure contributes to stability, especially in today's market climate. We are close to normal, but at the same time we are actively looking for the next possible change as the market situation develops.

Theme articles
This May 2025 edition of Investment Outlook also includes two newsworthy theme articles:
·     Infrastructure investments - a path to economic growth
·    Global trade - major transition if world trade imbalances are to be adjusted (previously published in Nordic Outlook)    

You will find the full report, plus a video, at www.seb.se/investmentoutlookreport.