SEB's China Financial Index rose to 55.1 in December 2025, up from 52.6 six months ago, signalling stronger optimism among Northern European companies operating in China despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. 
The latest survey shows that confidence among subsidiaries of major Northern European firms in China has strengthened during the second half of 2025. The index, which measures expectations for order intake, investment, staffing and profit, climbed to its highest level in two years. However, it remains below the historical average of 56.9. 

Investment appetite is a key driver of the improvement. The share of companies planning major investments reached 13 per cent, the highest in five years, while 43 per cent expect modest investments over the next six months. The staffing outlook also improved, with 38 per cent of respondents anticipating new recruitment, compared to 18 per cent in the previous survey. 

"Sentiments have been improving continuously during 2025, despite persistently weak profitability," says Juliette Xue Lascoux, General Manager of SEB Shanghai. "More companies are planning for investment expansions in China now compared to six months ago." 

Sales expectations remain broadly stable. Nearly half of respondents expect sales to stay within ±5 per cent, while 36 per cent forecast growth of 5-20 per cent. The profit outlook remains essentially unchanged, with 52 per cent expecting to break even and 32 per cent anticipating growth exceeding 5 per cent. 

Customer demand, competition and geopolitics remain the top concerns. Local competition is cited as a growing challenge. At the same time, geopolitical risk has eased slightly following the Xi-Trump summit in October, which introduced short-term stability to US-China trade relations. 
Despite this, 85 per cent of respondents believe geopolitics will continue to influence business decisions. Expectations on EU-China tariffs have shifted, with 41 per cent anticipating increases - almost double the share recorded six months ago. 

The survey was conducted between 3 and 15 December 2025 among 75 subsidiaries of major Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian, Danish, German, British and Swiss companies. 

Fact box 
Index value: 55.1 (up from 52.6 in June) 
Historical average: 56.9 
Investment plans: 13% major, 43% modest 
Staffing outlook: 38% expect expansion 
Top concerns: Customer demand, competition, geopolitics 
Survey period: 3-15 December 2025