UPM-Kymmene CorporationStock Exchange Release (Inside information)16 October 2024 at 12:00 EEST
Profit warning, inside information: UPM lowers its outlook due to lower deliveries in most businesses and decreased pulp prices
UPM lowers its outlook for 2024 and releases its preliminary Q3 2024 results. During the second half of the year, UPM's earnings have improved, however less than earlier expected. Comparable EBIT in Q3 2024 increased by 32% to EUR 291 million from Q3 2023, and 17% for the first nine months compared to last year. Comparable EBIT in Q4 2024 is expected to be on similar level or increase from Q4 2023 (EUR 323 million). Therefore, UPM's comparable EBIT in full-year 2024 is expected to be on similar level or increase from 2023.
During the second half of the year, market demand for UPM's products has been weaker than expected, leading to lower delivery volumes in most businesses.
On the positive side, the new UPM Paso de los Toros pulp mill has operated in full production since its first maintenance shutdown in June. However, the weakened pulp market and the high wood cost in Finland had a negative impact on the UPM Fibres business.
Earlier, UPM expected its full-year 2024 comparable EBIT to increase from 2023, and its H2 2024 comparable EBIT to be higher than in H1 2024. See the full previous outlook text below for reference.
UPM releases its preliminary results for Q3 2024. Sales decreased by 2% to EUR 2,521 million (2,584 million in Q3 2023). Comparable EBIT in Q3 2024 increased by 32% to EUR 291 million, 11,5% of sales (220 million, 8,5%).
UPM will release its Interim Report Q3 2024 on 29 October 2024.
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|Sales (EURm)  |Q3/2024|Q2/2024|Q3/2023|Q1-Q3/2024|Q1-Q3/2023|2023  |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM Fibres    |943    |922    |817    |2,727     |2,263     |3,044 |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM Energy    |125    |130    |142    |465       |435       |628   |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM Raflatac  |374    |397    |367    |1,181     |1,118     |1,485 |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM Specialty |335    |367    |357    |1,099     |1,111     |1,485 |
|Papers        |       |       |       |          |          |      |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM           |751    |711    |807    |2,265     |2,799     |3,598 |
|Communication |       |       |       |          |          |      |
|Papers        |       |       |       |          |          |      |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|UPM Plywood   |103    |120    |96     |321       |331       |422   |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|Other         |141    |172    |251    |466       |610       |802   |
|operations    |       |       |       |          |          |      |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|Internal sales|-252   |-272   |-251   |-816      |-735      |-1,000|
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|Eliminations  |0      |-1     |-1     |-2        |-2        |-3    |
|and           |       |       |       |          |          |      |
|reconciliation|       |       |       |          |          |      |
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
|Sales, total  |2,521  |2,546  |2,584  |7,707     |7,929     |10,460|
+--------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+------+
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|Comparable EBIT|Q3/2024|Q2/2024|Q3/2023|Q1-Q3/2024|Q1-Q3/2023|2023 |
|(EURm)         |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM Fibres     |190    |99     |-18    |397       |92        |116  |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM Energy     |22     |16     |30     |124       |139       |182  |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM Raflatac   |24     |39     |33     |112       |78        |103  |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM Specialty  |22     |41     |37     |114       |46        |98   |
|Papers         |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM            |51     |35     |96     |165       |262       |462  |
|Communication  |       |       |       |          |          |     |
|Papers         |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|UPM Plywood    |9      |16     |9      |35        |49        |56   |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|Other          |-23    |-55    |26     |-114      |0         |-14  |
|operations     |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|Eliminations   |-4     |-8     |7      |-28       |24        |8    |
|and            |       |       |       |          |          |     |
|reconciliation |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|Comparable     |291    |182    |220    |806       |689       |1,013|
|EBIT, total    |       |       |       |          |          |     |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
|% of sales     |11.5   |7.2    |8.5    |10.5      |8.7       |9.7  |
+---------------+-------+-------+-------+----------+----------+-----+
Previous outlook for 2024 for reference:
UPM's full-year 2024 comparable EBIT is expected to increase from 2023, supported by higher delivery volumes, the ramp-up and optimisation of the UPM Paso de los Toros pulp mill, and lower fixed costs. Demand for many UPM products is expected to gradually improve as the destocking seen in 2023 is over. The market conditions for renewable fuels are expected to be weaker than last year. UPM continues to manage margins and take actions to reduce variable and fixed costs.
In H2 2024, comparable EBIT is expected to be higher than in H1 2024. This improvement is expected to come especially from UPM Fibres, with the full pulp capacity available and pulp price levels starting at a higher level than at the start of the year. There are no major maintenance shutdowns scheduled for the company in H2 2024, whereas H1 2024 was impacted by unusually high maintenance activity and political strikes in Finland. The timing of the annual energy-related refunds is expected to support the result in Q4.
UPM, Media Relations
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media@upm.com
UPM
We deliver renewable and responsible solutions and innovate for a future beyond fossils across six business areas: UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers and UPM Plywood. As the industry leader in responsibility, we are committed to the UN Business Ambition for 1.5°C and the science-based targets to mitigate climate change. We employ 16,600 people worldwide and our annual sales are approximately EUR 10.5 billion. Our shares are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki Ltd. UPM Biofore - Beyond fossils.www.upm.com
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